How do slow wobbles in Earth's orbit set the rhythm of the ice ages?
A Serbian engineer worked out the clock of the ice ages, starting in a prison cell in 1914, and its strongest beat still comes from its weakest cycle.
▶ Start the storyIce ages are paced by slow, predictable changes in Earth's orbit and spin, which shift how much summer sunlight reaches the far north. There are three main cycles. The shape of the orbit, its eccentricity, swings between nearly circular and mildly elliptical, mostly because of the pull of Jupiter and Saturn, in rhythms of about 100,000 and 405,000 years. The tilt of Earth's axis rocks between 22.1° and 24.5° every 41,000 years, and more tilt means more extreme seasons. And the axis itself wobbles like a top, which, combined with the orbit's slow turning, changes the season in which Earth passes closest to the Sun, on a cycle of about 21,000 years today. The Serbian scientist Milutin Milanković worked out how these combine, focusing on 65° north, where there is a lot of land.
The beats of the ice-age clock
thousand years
| Period | |
|---|---|
| Precession (today) | 21 thousand years |
| Tilt | 41 thousand years |
| Eccentricity | 100 thousand years |
| Eccentricity (main) | 405 thousand years |
He started under unlikely conditions. In 1914, as a reserve officer of the Serbian army, he was arrested by Austria-Hungary and sent to a prisoner-of-war camp. In his cell he pulled out his notes on 'the cosmic problem' and wrote until past midnight; it felt, he said, like a roadhouse on his trip through the Universe.
The theory has held up: ice and ocean-floor cores show the climate responding to northern summer sunlight. But it hides a puzzle. For the last million years, ice ages have come roughly every 100,000 years, matching eccentricity, the cycle that changes sunlight the least. Before that, they followed the 41,000-year tilt cycle. Explaining that switch is known as the 100,000-year problem.
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Recap
Shape, tilt and wobble set the ice-age clock, but why the weakest cycle has dominated for a million years is still the 100,000-year problem.
Surprising fact · Milanković began his theory in a prisoner-of-war cell in 1914, writing until past midnight.
Sources (5)
No source, no claim. Every fact in this lesson (32 claims) cites at least one of these.