Economics●●●●●Difficulty 4 of 5

How does a central bank change one interest rate and cool down a whole economy?

A committee nudges the rate banks charge each other overnight, and months later mortgages, hiring and prices all feel it.

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It sets the price of the very shortest loans, and that price ripples outwards. Banks constantly lend each other money overnight. A central bank fixes a target for that overnight rate and enforces it: it always lends to banks at the top of a band and pays them on deposits at the bottom, so no bank will pay more or accept less. In the US this is the federal funds rate, set by a committee that normally meets eight times a year.

From there the change spreads. When the policy rate rises, banks charge more on loans to firms and households. Businesses borrow and spend less, including on hiring, so household incomes and spending fall too. Higher rates also tend to lower stock and house prices, so owners feel poorer and spend less, and they shift exchange rates, which affects exports. Less overall demand means less pressure on prices: inflation cools, though jobs suffer too.

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee seated around a large table in a formal room at the Federal Reserve in Washington.
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington in April 2016: the group that sets the target for the US federal funds rate.Photo: Federal Reserve · Public domain

None of this happens instantly, and much of it runs on expectations. Because people's beliefs about future inflation shape actual inflation, central banks have to be credible. Most aim for a target, often 2%.

How a rate rise travels through the economy
  1. Step 1: Policy rate up

    The central bank raises its target for overnight lending between banks.

  2. Step 2: Loans get dearer

    Banks charge firms and households more to borrow.

  3. Step 3: Spending and hiring fall

    Firms cut investment and labour; households spend less.

  4. Step 4: Assets and currency move

    House and stock prices dip; the exchange rate shifts.

  5. Step 5: Demand and inflation cool

    Less overall demand means less pressure on prices, and on jobs.

The most dramatic demonstration came from Paul Volcker. As head of the US Federal Reserve, he pushed the federal funds rate to 20% in 1981. Inflation, which had peaked at 14.8% in 1980, fell below 3% by 1983, but at the cost of a recession, unemployment over 10%, and farmers blockading the Fed with their tractors.

Quiz me

0/3

  1. 1.How does a central bank keep banks' overnight lending rate near its target?
  2. 2.Which is NOT one of the ways a higher policy rate lowers inflation?
  3. 3.What did Paul Volcker's interest rate shock of the early 1980s show?

Recap

Higher policy rate → dearer loans → less spending → less demand → lower inflation, but fewer jobs too.

Surprising fact · New Zealand was the first country to adopt an official inflation target, in 1990.

Sources (4)

No source, no claim. Every fact in this lesson (31 claims) cites at least one of these.

  1. [1]Monetary policy · Wikipedia
  2. [2]Federal funds rate · Wikipedia
  3. [3]Taylor rule · Wikipedia
  4. [4]Paul Volcker · Wikipedia
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